F. Palacios Rodríguez, F. Chalub, A. Gómez-Corral, M. López García
By using a Markov chain model, we describe the spread of a single bacterial species in a hospital ward where patients may be free of bacteria or may carry bacterial strains that are either sensitive or resistant to antimicrobial agents. The exact reproduction number is here defined as the random number of secondary infections generated by those patients who are accommodated in a predetermined bed before a patient who is free of bacteria is accommodated in this bed for the first time. In this work, we focus on the calculation of the probability law of the exact reproduction number. We decompose the exact reproduction number to consider infections due to the sensitive and the resistant bacterial strains.
Keywords: Epidemic model, Markov chain, quasi-birth-death process, reproduction number
Scheduled
GT15.PROCEST4 Invited Session
November 9, 2023 4:50 PM
HC3: Canónigos Room 3